Quantifying the Human Influence on the Intensity of Extreme 1- and 5-Day Precipitation Amounts at Global, Continental, and Regional Scales

Abstract This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the human contribution to observed intensification precipitation extremes at different spatial scales. We consider annual maxima logarithm 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) amounts for 1950–2014 over global land area, four continents, several regions, compare changes with expected responses external forcings as simulated by CanESM2 in large-ensemble experiment multiple models from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). use novel detection attribution method that is applied directly station data areas considered without prior processing such gridding, or temporal dimension reduction, transformation unitless indices uses climate only obtain estimates space–time pattern extreme response forcing. The influence anthropogenic on detected three continental regions (the western Northern Hemisphere, Eurasia, eastern Eurasia), many smaller IPCC including central North America, East Asia, east-central Europe, northern Siberia Rx1day, Russian Arctic region, Rx5day. Consistent results are obtained using forcing either CMIP6. Anthropogenic estimated have substantially decreased approximate waiting time between maximum events where has been detected, which important implications infrastructure design change adaptation policy. Significance Statement All previous studies (i) heavily processed via transformation, averaging other reduction approaches, well estimate forcing, (ii) also unforced natural variability precipitation. Both aspects reduce user confidence results. avoids difficult verify model-based extremes. Results confirm findings studies, extend them number subcontinental thus increasing